HVDC Transmission in 2026: Project Milestones and the Grid Investment Outlook

HVDC demand is a transmission bottleneck story, not simply a renewables story

High-voltage direct current transmission is most compelling when large volumes of electricity must travel long distances, when submarine cables make alternating-current charging effects costly, or when two networks need tightly controlled power exchange. Those characteristics explain the role of HVDC in offshore interconnectors, remote generation corridors and links between systems with different operating characteristics.

The commercial opportunity is consequently more selective than the broad electricity-grid market. A utility seeking to reinforce a short local corridor may find an AC upgrade more economical; an offshore connection of several hundred kilometres can support a different technical case. Both require transmission investment, but only the latter is a reliable candidate for an HVDC converter-and-cable package. The distinction matters when translating public power-system plans into supplier-addressable demand.

Europe's TYNDP 2024 identifies additional cross-border transfer capability as economically valuable, while the U.S. Department of Energy's July 2026 draft transmission study highlights new load from data centres, manufacturing and other large customers. Neither publication should be interpreted as a definitive purchase forecast for HVDC equipment. They establish the pressure on power networks; individual project decisions establish the potential converter and cable order book. [E01] [E02]

Europe's 108 GW finding is a planning signal, not an HVDC market size

ENTSO-E's TYNDP 2024 estimates opportunities for 108 GW of additional cross-border capacity after 2030 to improve the economics of Europe's electricity system by 2040. It compares that figure with roughly 80 GW of cross-border capacity increase associated with projects under development for the period, leaving an indicative 28 GW planning gap. The plan evaluates a mix of possible grid developments and solutions; it does not assign those 108 GW exclusively to HVDC systems. [E01]

For equipment suppliers, the practical meaning is that system planners have identified a continuing shortage of transfer capability. Project promoters still need to secure routing, cost allocation, permits and investment approval before an HVDC order materializes. In other words, the 28 GW figure describes a system-planning mismatch rather than a set of unawarded converter contracts.

It is also important to distinguish rated transfer capacity from annual energy delivered. A 2 GW cable rating is the maximum transfer capability under specified operating conditions; actual utilisation depends on price spreads, outages, renewable generation, network constraints and dispatch rules. Installed gigawatts and delivered terawatt-hours cannot be substituted for each other in a commercial forecast.

Six corridors, six different commercial stages

A selected group of projects illustrates how the same technology market can contain operating assets, active construction packages, preferred-supplier announcements and government approvals. These are examples chosen for their publicly documented status; they are not a complete global project inventory. Their rated capacities should not be summed and described as a new-build pipeline.

For SunZia and the Indian asset, the public sources document operational or commissioned assets. For the UK examples, project ratings indicate proposed transfer capacity, not electricity now available on the grid. [E03] [E04] [E05] [E06] [E07] [E09]

The stages above create different revenue opportunities. At the planning stage, engineering and design services matter most. Regulatory clearance and the award of converter or cable contracts are more direct indications of manufacturing demand. During construction, factory acceptance, delivery, integration and commissioning become critical. After energisation, maintenance, controls upgrades and network services take greater prominence.

Britain's eastern links offer a clearer view of the order cycle

The UK's Eastern Green Link programme is valuable as a market indicator because related projects are visible at different stages, rather than because all their headline capacities represent fresh orders today. Eastern Green Link 2 is a 2 GW, 505 km subsea HVDC system between Peterhead and Drax. A September 2025 update described it as a £4.3 billion initiative, with foundation and electrical works underway at the converter sites and cable-laying activity planned for 2027–2028. The project website identifies 2029 as the intended operational year. [E04] [E11]

That investment figure is the reported amount for an entire transmission project; it is not a disclosed converter-only contract value or a comparable unit price for the broader HVDC market. The cost also reflects route characteristics, installation conditions, land works and other project-specific scope. Using £4.3 billion divided by 2 GW as a generic market-equipment price would materially overstate what can be inferred from one project.

Two further UK disclosures underline the difference between procurement and completion. In August 2025, National Grid and SSEN Transmission named Hitachi Energy as the preferred bidder for EGL3 converter stations. In October 2026, National Grid reported completion of manufacturing for the first of 14 UK-built transformers intended for EGL1. The first is a supplier-selection milestone; the second is physical progress through an existing equipment package. Neither should be counted as a newly commissioned line. [E05] [E06]

Sea Link has moved on a third track. The UK government approved the proposed 2 GW subsea connection between Suffolk and Kent on 30 October 2026. Ofgem's earlier project-assessment consultation is a reminder that development consent, regulatory treatment and delivery are distinct gates. The regulatory and commercial path after consent remains consequential for procurement timing. [E07] [E08]

SunZia turns the long-distance HVDC case from ambition into operating capacity

Hitachi Energy's June 2026 announcement describes SunZia as an operational 3,000 MW HVDC connection carrying power from New Mexico to Arizona over approximately 550 miles. The project uses voltage-source-converter technology. These are reported project facts, not a forecast of future construction. [E03]

SunZia is important because high-voltage transmission developments can spend years in routing, permitting, financing and interconnection processes before they contribute to the grid. Its commissioning demonstrates an executable path for a large, dedicated generation-to-load corridor. It does not mean all proposed U.S. HVDC links will achieve similar timelines or economics.

The broader U.S. policy context remains complicated. DOE's 2026 draft National Transmission Needs Study identifies pressure from data centres, expanding manufacturing and other demand sources. FERC Order No. 1920 creates a framework for long-term regional transmission planning, including a planning horizon of at least 20 years and consideration of cost allocation. Both measures can improve visibility of network needs, but neither compels a particular corridor to adopt HVDC instead of AC transmission or to pass permitting on a set schedule. [E02] [E10]

For contractors and equipment suppliers, the distinction between a utility-planned regional reinforcement and a project-specific transmission line matters. The first can create a prospective opportunity contingent on planning and cost recovery; the second may already have a defined voltage, control architecture and engineering contractor. Supply-chain forecasts are most credible when mapped to those project-level gates.

India demonstrates high-capacity HVDC at a different technology scale

POWERGRID records the completion of the 6,000 MW Raigarh–Pugalur–Thrissur mega-HVDC project in 2021. India's Ministry of Power has described the Raigarh–Pugalur section as ±800 kV, with a 4,000 MW terminal at Pugalur and a further 2,000 MW at Thrissur. It was developed to move power from generating regions toward southern load centres. [E09] [E12]

Placed beside a contemporary offshore project such as EGL2, the Indian asset illustrates why capacity and route length alone are insufficient for vendor comparisons. Converter design, AC-system characteristics, terminal arrangements and operating objectives differ. A bulk inland corridor designed around very high transfer capacity is not directly comparable with a subsea link that also requires marine installation, coastal stations and coordinated switching and protection systems.

This variation in technology requirements is commercially important. Voltage-source converters offer flexible active and reactive power control and can serve network applications where control characteristics are valuable. Line-commutated designs can be attractive for certain extremely high-power transmission duties but depend more directly on system strength and commutation conditions. Project-specific engineering, not a single industry-wide technology ranking, determines the effective choice.

Operational assets also create a service market. As grids change around them, operators may study altered flow directions, terminal upgrades, control-system modernisation and nearby AC reinforcements. Such opportunities should be assessed on approved upgrade scope and disclosed contract values rather than projected simply from the original converter rating.

Converter integration and cable delivery are the critical competitive battlegrounds

HVDC projects concentrate specialised work in a relatively small number of packages: power-electronic converters, control and protection systems, transformers, land and submarine cables, installation, testing and commissioning. Converter suppliers compete on delivery confidence and system performance as well as hardware capability. Cable manufacturers contend with long production cycles, installation vessel availability and difficult marine conditions.

Public project disclosures illustrate the differentiated roles. Hitachi Energy reported providing VSC technology for operational SunZia, was named preferred converter supplier for EGL3, and National Grid identified UK-manufactured transformers for EGL1. These facts point to a complex supplier ecosystem; they are not enough to estimate individual manufacturers' 2026 HVDC revenues. A supplier can appear in several stages of a project, while the associated orders may have been booked in different financial years. [E03] [E05] [E06]

Across the value chain, three bottlenecks deserve particular attention. First, long-lead equipment can prevent a technically approved project from progressing on its original schedule. Second, permitting and community engagement can alter routes after preliminary design. Third, contractual interfaces between converter contractors, civil contractors and cable installers can amplify cost or schedule risk. Consequently, a large announced project pipeline does not automatically translate into near-term manufacturing demand.

Competition should be analysed at the package level rather than through undifferentiated company counts. The key question is which suppliers have actually won manufacturing or turnkey work, on what timetable, and with what portion of the project scope. Without disclosed order values, public capacity ratings support an assessment of opportunity, not a defensible market-share calculation.

The 2026–2034 opportunity depends on conversion from plans to construction

Through 2034, demand for HVDC is likely to be shaped by three enduring needs: moving remote renewable generation to centres of demand, reinforcing congested regional grids and increasing the controllability of cross-border trade. Current official disclosures support those drivers, but they do not support a single reliable global revenue forecast or CAGR for HVDC equipment. Any such estimate would require an explicit bottom-up project database, contract-scope assumptions and a consistent accounting period.

Europe provides the clearest system-level indicator through TYNDP, yet its 108 GW planning opportunity includes technologies beyond HVDC. The UK provides the most visible near-term sequence of manufacturing, construction and approval milestones. SunZia establishes that at least one major new U.S. corridor has moved into service. India shows that operating assets at multi-gigawatt scale are not only prospective business. These are different sources of market intelligence and should remain separate in investment models.

Procurement visibility therefore matters more than broad forecasts. The most defensible outlook is an expanding set of potential HVDC applications with uneven conversion rates, substantial delivery complexity and a continuing premium on engineering and supply-chain execution.